Study Insights:
- ASEAN’s growing economic weight, strategic location, and diplomatic role are strengthening its potential to become a global power.
- Turning this potential into sustained influence will require deeper regional integration, stronger institutions, and greater strategic autonomy.
- The Philippines’ 2026 ASEAN Chairship offers an opportunity to advance ASEAN’s collective capacity and role in a changing global order.
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The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is gaining the economic and strategic weight that could strengthen its position as a global power, but stronger regional cohesion and institutions are needed to translate this weight into sustained global influence, according to a study by the ÁñÁ«ÊÓƵ (PIDS).
The study, “ASEAN’s Ascent: A Global Power in the Making,” by PIDS Supervising ÁñÁ«ÊÓƵ Specialist Mark Anthony Barral and Senior ÁñÁ«ÊÓƵ Fellow Francis Mark Quimba, examines whether ASEAN can move beyond its traditional role as a regional facilitator and become a more independent center of influence in an increasingly multipolar world.
ASEAN's economic transformation provides a strong foundation for this potential. Its combined gross domestic product increased from $118 billion in 2000 to $3.37 trillion in 2023, while its population has surpassed 685 million, giving the bloc substantial economic and market weight.
Statistical analysis in the study also points to ASEAN's growing potential to move toward global-power status. Under the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) model, the probability of ASEAN being classified as a “core polar”—a category associated with established centers of global power—rose to as high as 0.89 during the middle of the 24-year observation period, while its probability of remaining in the emerging-economy category fell below 0.50.
Figure 14 shows a stronger potential shift in ASEAN’s global position, with the likelihood of being classified as a core polar increasing significantly midway through the period, while the likelihood of remaining an emerging economy declines.
The finding, however, does not mean that ASEAN has already attained global-power status. A second model presents a more conservative assessment, with ASEAN increasingly associated with emerging-power status while still showing potential to move toward core global-power status.
Figure 15 illustrates ASEAN’s evolving position in the global power landscape, showing that the region is increasingly associated with emerging-power status while also displaying potential to move toward core global-power status.
The study identifies economic size as the strongest factor associated with polar status, followed by governance and corruption control, military capabilities, research and development, digital connectivity, trade openness, and rule of law.
“ASEAN trusts its centrality,” the study states, describing this as a position “earned from trust and neutrality among major powers” that allows ASEAN to “act as bridge among competing polars.”
Beyond economic and military capabilities, ASEAN's strategic advantage lies in its centrality and neutrality, which allow it to maintain relationships with competing major powers and serve as a bridge among them. ASEAN-led platforms such as the East Asia Summit, ASEAN Regional Forum, and ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting-Plus provide mechanisms for dialogue, cooperation, and regional problem-solving.
But ASEAN's growing economic weight does not automatically translate into collective power. Its hard-power capabilities remain more limited than those of established major powers. The bloc's combined military expenditure increased from $24.9 billion in 2000 to $65.6 billion in 2023, but remained substantially below that of major powers such as China.
To strengthen its global trajectory, the study recommends deeper economic integration, including the faster implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, greater harmonization of supply chain standards, and improved digital connectivity. It also calls for stronger regional cooperation in maritime security, disaster response, digital governance, and sustainable development.
It further recommends diversifying ASEAN’s strategic partnerships beyond the United States and China by strengthening ties with India, the European Union, Africa, and Latin America. This would give ASEAN greater strategic options while preserving its central role amid major-power competition.
The findings are particularly timely as the Philippines chairs ASEAN in 2026, giving the country an opportunity to advance initiatives that strengthen regional integration, institutional capacity, and ASEAN's strategic autonomy amid intensifying geopolitical competition.
The study argues that ASEAN does not need to replicate traditional models of major-power dominance. Instead, it can build on its ability to convene, negotiate, and foster cooperation. Its global trajectory will depend on combining these strengths with greater internal coherence and strategic capacity.
“ASEAN’s ascent as a global power will depend not on replicating traditional major-power models, but on developing a uniquely Southeast Asian form of influence grounded in inclusivity, cooperation, and collective resilience,” the study concludes.
Read the full study at . ### — MJCG
